L8.2 - Playing with Probability
Learning Intentions and Success Criteria
- Describe (in writing) the sample space for chance experiments. Use the sample space to calculate the probability of compound events
- Generate (in writing) and critique (orally) probability models that meet specific criterion
- Find the sample space for chance experiments
- Model situations using probability
- Use sample space to calculate probability
2.1: Taking Names
Record the names everyone drew.
2.2: Who Was Helpful?
Use the data your group collected in the warm-up to answer the questions.
1. Based on the data you collected, estimate the probability of drawing each of these names from your bag. Explain or show your reasoning.
Bag 1
Bag 2
Bag 3
Bag 4
Bag 5
2. There are 15 slips of paper in the bag. What names do you think are written on the slips? Explain your reasoning.
3. If you are allowed to keep going around the group, drawing names and replacing them until you had 100 names drawn, how do you think that affects your understanding of what is in the bag?
4. The next month, the bag contains 15 slips as well. Lin’s name is included 5 times, Clare’s name 4 times, Han’s name 3 times, Diego’s name 2 times, and Jada’s name 1 time. The teacher draws names one at a time, replacing them each time. What might the teacher’s list of names drawn look like if she draws 10 times? Is this the only list of names drawn that is possible? Explain your reasoning.
2.3: Probability Words
Take turns with your partner coming up with words that have the probabilities given when selecting a letter at random from the word. Each person should try to come up with one word for each situation. 1. P(vowel) = ⅓. P(consonant) = ⅔.
2. P(vowel) = ⅔. P(consonant) = ⅓.
3. P(vowel) = 0.5. P(T) = ¼.
4. P(S) = 0.5. P(vowel) = 0.25.
5. Think of a word and give your partner at least 2 clues about the word using probability of certain letters or types of letter.
Lesson Synthesis: Playing with Probability
Record the letters drawn from this bag.
Learning Intentions and Success Criteria
- Describe (in writing) the sample space for chance experiments. Use the sample space to calculate the probability of compound events
- Generate (in writing) and critique (orally) probability models that meet specific criterion
- Find the sample space for chance experiments
- Model situations using probability
- Use sample space to calculate probability
Cool-Down: Reckless Fishing
1. A forest ranger wants to estimate the probability of catching a bass in a lake when using a special type of bait. Describe a process the ranger could use to estimate the probability of catching a bass in the lake.
2. One of the letters from the word RECKLESSNESS is chosen at random.
